- AVAX might pull back to $35.07 in the short term
- Large-scale liquidations could take place between $34.46 and $34.97
In the last 30 days, the value of Avalanche [AVAX] has decreased by 14.36%, CoinMarketCap showed. This performance was contrary to the big show the cryptocurrency put in 2023.
However, AMBCrypto agrees that a 292% 90-day increase would eventually lead to a profit-taking season which was what AVAX seemed to be going through. But will the downtrend only last a while or should AVAX holders get set for an extended nosedive period?
Less demand leads to a decline
To check the potential, we look at AVAX from the technical perspective. According to the 4-hour AVAX/USD chart, demand for the token had waned— a notable decline from the period it went from $8 to $50.
But at press time, AVAX’s price was below the 20 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (yellow).
This position is considered a positive sign. So, the outlook for AVAX remained a bearish one. This assertion was also supported by the death cross as the 50 EMA had risen above the 20 EMA.
Furthermore, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level showed that AVAX might pull back to $35.07 before any demand affects its price.
Source: TradingView
AMBCrypto also checked the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At press time, the RSI was 46.93, indicating that bullish forces were no longer in control of the momentum. If buying pressure does not increase, AVAX might not recover before another slide.
However, signals from the Liquidation Heatmap showed that short targeting less than $35 might need to be careful. Liquidation occurs when a trader’s position is closed due to price fluctuations and the margin balance can’t cover the funding fee.
It’s not yet time to repeat the 2023 season
So, the Liquidation Heatmap shows the possible price levels where these liquidations could occur. Using HyblockCapital’s data, we found out that large-scale liquidations could occur between $34.46 and $34.97.
Also, longs with high leverage could face a wipeout between $38 and $40.
Source: HyblockCapital
Per the Funding Rate, Santiment showed that it was 0.01%. Also, AMBCrypto’s analysis of the metric revealed that it had stayed the same since the 9th of January.
Funding Rate is the cost of holding an open perp position in the market. If the Funding Rate is negative, it means open short positions pay a funding fee longs. In this situation. the perp price is trading at a discount compared to the spot value.
However, since the Funding Rate was positive, it implied that longs and paying shorts. Also, AVAX’s price was trading at a perp premium above the index price.
Source: Santiment
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In addition, the stalling AVAX price alongside the Funding Rate means the trend was potentially bearish. Though perp longs were aggressive, it could take a while to reward the positions.
As it stands, AVAX has a lower chance of hitting $40 to $45 in the coming days