Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
- BTC oscillated between 50-EMA and 100-EMA since 9 May.
- Open interest rates remained unchanged; longs discouraged.
Bitcoin [BTC] continued consolidating near $26.6k support, with volumes remaining low since late March. While the current level could be an accumulation zone, BTC is yet to register a strong rebound, highlighting the tussle between bulls and bears at $26.6k.
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A recent report highlighted that self-custody for both BTC and ETH has been on the rise, suggesting investors’ huge bets on a likely uptrend move.
But key price resistance levels await, and here is a strong bearish stronghold for BTC bulls to watch out for on the daily chart.
Will $26.6k and 100-EMA check further drop?
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The drop from 6 May, left behind an FVG (fair value gap) zone between $27,826 – $28,396 (white). Just below the FVG zone lay the 50-EMA of $27.57k (blue line). Above it lays the $28.5k resistance, a key obstacle back in the second half of March.
This makes the area a strong bearish stronghold, and bulls must clear it to gain leverage and dent any prevailing bearish sentiment.
A negative price reaction from the above bearish zone and subsequent breach of the $26.6k support could further weaken BTC’s market structure. The next support levels to the south are the dynamic 100-EMA (yellow) and $25.26k.
However, a daily session close above the bearish stronghold ($28.5k) could set BTC to rally and retest recent highs of $29k or $31k. Above these resistance levels, the next resistance level lay at $32.4k.
Meanwhile, the RSI was below the mid-range, highlighting limited buying pressure. However, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) was above the zero mark, indicating substantial capital inflows.
BTC’s open interest rates stagnate
Source: Coinglass
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According to Coinglass data, BTC’s futures open interest rates hovered around $11 billion since the second half of April. This shows a neutral position in the futures market in the same period, meaning prices can go in either direction.
However, Coinglass’s total liquidation data showed longs were discouraged, with over $5 million worth of positions, out of $9.7 million, wrecked in the past 24 hours as of press time. This reinforces a mild bearish sentiment in the futures market.
A more nuanced direction could be clear from Monday (22 May). The U.S. debt ceiling negotiation is a major development worth tracking over the coming days as it may affect BTC’s movements.
Source: Coinglass